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Prediction for CME (2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-22T11:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36567/-1
CME Note: Wide, messy CME seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the southeast in STEREO A COR2. Source is a large eruption from the southwest quadrant of the disk, from the large Active Region 13961 which was centered at S10W28 at the time of the eruption. Dimming starting at 2025-01-22T10:43Z extends from S10-S50 and from W10-W40 as seen in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines and ejecta can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304, respectively. It is possible that two small filaments lifted off in this eruption, however, there is filamentary material visible/reformed after the eruption. An M1.3 flare from AR 13961 with peak time 2025-01-22T11:08Z is associated with this event. This CME visually overlaps with the far-sided CME:2025-01-22T08:36Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-25T05:51Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-22 16:49
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-22 11:36
 - Radial speed: 626.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: S27W09
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 593.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-01-25 05:51 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.27 hours)
Lead Time: 53.60 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-01-23T00:15Z
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